My Predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards


4 hour once upon a time.in hollywood

The 92nd Academy Awards will be presented live on Sunday, February 9th, 2020. Which films are you rooting for this year?  As usual, I will weigh in on 17 of the 24 categories with my picks for both the film/person I believe WILL WIN, and also MY PICK for who I believe SHOULD WIN if I were submitting an Oscar ballot.

MY PICK = My choice if I were filling out an Official Oscar Ballot.

WILL WIN = The choice I believe the Academy will make for the winner.

WINNER = Updated on February 10th, 2020 with the actual winner.

POST OSCAR UPDATE:  “Parasite” shocked the film community last night at the 92nd Academy Awards, winning four Oscars including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best International Film.  In doing so, my predictions fell short, choosing correctly only 11 of the 17 categories I weighed in on.  And given the majority of my chips were in on “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”, my performance here is no surprise, with “Parasite” going on to win three of the major awards I predicted would go to Tarantino and company.  But there’s no hard feelings.  I had “Parasite” ranked as my number two film of 2019 (right behind “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), writing in my 2019 Ten Best Films list that I thought “Parasite” was the kind of film which could warrant inclusion on a Ten Best Films of the Decade list.  

After the momentum Netflix had built with the awards success of 2018’s “Roma”, the streaming giant is likely feeling a bit disappointed this morning after “The Irishman” was completely shut out in winning any of its ten nominations, with Laura Dern’s win for “Marriage Story” being the lone win on the film side for the distributor (Netlfix did also pick up a win for Best Documentary for “American Factory”.).  “Joker”, which came into the night leading everyone with eleven nominations, came away with two wins, with Joaquin Phoenix winning for Best Actor and Hildur Guðnadóttir winning for Original Score.

I have to figure Quentin Tarantino expected Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, a film celebrating the very people who make up the Academy, would have fared better, but after sailing through most of awards season as the odds on favorite in nearly every major categorie, including Best Picture, 1917 (which also had a disappointing night winning three awards in technical categories) and Parasite began taking top guild honors and along with it the momentum necessary to supplant Taratinos masterful creation.  And thats what makes the Academy Awards so difficult to predict.  Not even the most seasoned pundit saw Parasites major wins coming.  Until next year, have a great time at the movies! JH

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

ANTONIO BANDERAS - Pain and Glory

LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story

JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)

JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes

AL PACINO - The Irishman

JOE PESCI - The Irishman

BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

CYNTHIA ERIVO - Harriet

SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story

SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women

CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell

RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

KATHY BATES - Richard Jewell

LAURA DERN - Marriage Story (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)

SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit

FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women

MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell


CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto

JOKER - Lawrence Sher

THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke

1917 - Roger Deakins (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - Robert Richardson


COSTUME DESIGN

THE IRISHMAN 

Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson

JOJO RABBIT

Mayes C. Rubeo

JOKER

Mark Bridges

LITTLE WOMEN

Jacqueline Durran (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD

Arianne Phillips (MY PICK)


DIRECTING

THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese

JOKER - Todd Phillips

1917 - Sam Mendes (WILL WIN)

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino (MY PICK)

PARASITE - Bong Joon Ho (WINNER)


FILM EDITING

FORD V FERRARI

Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

THE IRISHMAN

Thelma Schoonmaker

JOJO RABBIT

Tom Eagles

JOKER

Jeff Groth

PARASITE

Yang Jinmo (MY PICK)


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

BOMBSHELL

Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

JOKER

Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou

JUDY

Jeremy Woodhead

MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL

Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White

1917

Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole (MY PICK)


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

JOKER - Hildur Guðnadóttir (WINNER)

LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat

MARRIAGE STORY - Randy Newman

1917 - Thomas Newman (WILL WIN) (MY PICK)

STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams


BEST PICTURE

FORD V FERRARI

Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, Producers

THE IRISHMAN

Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers

JOJO RABBIT

Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi and Chelsea Winstanley, Producers

JOKER

Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers

LITTLE WOMEN

Amy Pascal, Producer

MARRIAGE STORY

Noah Baumbach and David Heyman, Producers

1917

Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, Producers

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD (WILL WIN) (MY PICK)

David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, Producers

PARASITE (WINNER)

Kwak Sin Ae and Bong Joon Ho, Producers


PRODUCTION DESIGN

THE IRISHMAN

Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves

JOJO RABBIT

Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková

1917

Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)

Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

PARASITE

Production Design: Lee Ha Jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo


SOUND EDITING

FORD V FERRARI - Donald Sylvester (WINNER)

JOKER - Alan Robert Murray

1917 - Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) 

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - Wylie Stateman

STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Matthew Wood and David Acord


SOUND MIXING

AD ASTRA

Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano

FORD V FERRARI

Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow

JOKER

Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland

1917

Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson (WILL WIN) (MY PICK) (WINNER)

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD

Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano


VISUAL EFFECTS

AVENGERS: ENDGAME 

Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick (MY PICK)

THE IRISHMAN

Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli

THE LION KING

Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman

1917 

Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

THE IRISHMAN

Screenplay by Steven Zaillian

JOJO RABBIT

Screenplay by Taika Waititi (WINNER)

JOKER

Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver

LITTLE WOMEN

Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig (WILL WIN)

THE TWO POPES

Written by Anthony McCarten (MY PICK)


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

KNIVES OUT

Written by Rian Johnson

MARRIAGE STORY

Written by Noah Baumbach

1917

Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns

ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD

Written by Quentin Tarantino (WILL WIN) (MY PICK)

PARASITE

Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won (WINNER)