My Predictions for the 91st Academy Awards


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The 91st Academy Awards will be presented live on Sunday, February 24th, 2019 with no shortage of intrigue amongst the nominees.  As usual, I will weigh in on 18 of the 24 categories with my picks for both the film/person I believe WILL WIN, and also MY PICK for who I believe SHOULD WIN if I were submitting an Oscar ballot.

MY PICK = My choice if I were filling out an Official Oscar Ballot.


WILL WIN = The choice I believe the Academy will make for the winner.


WINNER = Updated on February 25th, 2019 with the actual winner.

UPDATE - February 25th, 2019:  In a ceremony that once again effectively spread the wealth, I faltered by doing what Oscar voters had been doing for some 90 years, not taking a superhero movie seriously.  That’s not to say I didn’t think “Black Panther” was deserving of its nominations, but the voting body has always ignored genre films and with period pieces such as “The Favourite” competing against it, there was no reason to believe the Marvel film would prevail.  But I was happily wrong here.  “Black Panther” went on to win statues for both “Costume Design” and “Production Design”, leading the way for a middling 10 out of 18 categories chosen correctly.  But that’s not to say I’m disappointed, with “Green Book”, my top film choice of 2018, taking home the Best Picture trophy and Spike Lee winning his first competitive Oscar for his “Blackkklansman” screenplay. And for all the press leading up to what would be a hostless show, the broadcast proved to be full of great moments and proved, after all, to be a fine end to another fantastic year at the movies.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

CHRISTIAN BALE - Vice

BRADLEY COOPER - A Star Is Born

WILLEM DAFOE - At Eternity's Gate

RAMI MALEK - Bohemian Rhapsody (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

VIGGO MORTENSEN - Green Book (MY PICK)


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

MAHERSHALA ALI - Green Book (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

ADAM DRIVER - BlacKkKlansman

SAM ELLIOTT - A Star Is Born

RICHARD E. GRANT - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

SAM ROCKWELL - Vice


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

YALITZA APARICIO - Roma

GLENN CLOSE - The Wife (WILL WIN)

OLIVIA COLMAN - The Favourite (MY PICK) (WINNER)

LADY GAGA - A Star Is Born

MELISSA MCCARTHY - Can You Ever Forgive Me?


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

AMY ADAMS - Vice (WILL WIN)

MARINA DE TAVIRA - Roma

REGINA KING - If Beale Street Could Talk (WINNER)

EMMA STONE - The Favourite (MY PICK)

RACHEL WEISZ - The Favourite


CINEMATOGRAPHY

COLD WAR - Łukasz Żal

THE FAVOURITERobbie Ryan

NEVER LOOK AWAY - Caleb Deschanel

ROMAAlfonso Cuarón (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

A STAR IS BORNMatthew Libatique


COSTUME DESIGN

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS - Mary Zophres

BLACK PANTHERRuth Carter (WINNER)

THE FAVOURITESandy Powell (MY PICK) (WILL WIN)

MARY POPPINS RETURNSSandy Powell

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS - Alexandra Byrne


DIRECTING

BLACKKKLANSMAN - Spike Lee 

COLD WAR - Paweł Pawlikowski

THE FAVOURITEYorgos Lanthimos

ROMAAlfonso Cuarón (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

VICEAdam McKay


FILM EDITING

BLACKKKLANSMANBarry Alexander Brown

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODYJohn Ottman (WINNER)

THE FAVOURITEYorgos Mavropsaridis (MY PICK)  (WILL WIN)

GREEN BOOKPatrick J. Don Vito

VICEHank Corwin


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

BORDER 

Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS 

Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks

VICE (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

BLACK PANTHERLudwig Goransson (MY PICK) (WINNER)

BLACKKKLANSMANTerence Blanchard

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALKNicholas Britell (WILL WIN)

ISLE OF DOGSAlexandre Desplat

MARY POPPINS RETURNSMarc Shaiman


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

ALL THE STARS

from Black Panther; Music by Kendrick Lamar, Mark “Sounwave” Spears and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith; Lyric by Kendrick Lamar, SZA and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith

I'LL FIGHT

from RBG; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

THE PLACE WHERE LOST THINGS GO

from Mary Poppins Returns; Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

SHALLOW (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

from A Star Is Born; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

WHEN A COWBOY TRADES HIS SPURS FOR WINGS

from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; Music and Lyric by Gillian Welch and David Rawlings


BEST PICTURE

BLACK PANTHER 

Kevin Feige, Producer

BLACKKKLANSMAN  

Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY 

Graham King, Producer

THE FAVOURITE 

Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers

GREEN BOOK (MY PICK) (WINNER)

Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers

ROMA (WILL WIN)

Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, Producers

A STAR IS BORN

Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers

VICE

Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers


PRODUCTION DESIGN

BLACK PANTHER (WINNER)

Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart

THE FAVOURITE (WILL WIN)

Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

FIRST MAN (MY PICK)

Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

MARY POPPINS RETURNS

Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim

ROMA

Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez


SOUND EDITING

BLACK PANTHER 

Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (WINNER)

John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone

FIRST MAN (MY PICK) (WILL WIN)

Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan

A QUIET PLACE 

Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

ROMA  

Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay


SOUND MIXING

BLACK PANTHER 

Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY  (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali

FIRST MAN  (MY PICK)

Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis

ROMA 

Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García

A STAR IS BORN 

Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow


VISUAL EFFECTS

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick

CHRISTOPHER ROBIN

Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould

FIRST MAN (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm

READY PLAYER ONE

Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS

Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

BLACKKKLANSMAN (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (MY PICK)

Written for the screen by Barry Jenkins

A STAR IS BORN

Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE FAVOURITE

Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

FIRST REFORMED

Written by Paul Schrader

GREEN BOOK (MY PICK) (WILL WIN) (WINNER)

Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly

ROMA

Written by Alfonso Cuarón

VICE

Written by Adam McKay